Will Muslims decide the election?

By Charles Sercombe
This year’s presidential campaign certainly has had some unexpected twists, particularly with President Joe Biden dropping out of the election.
Instead, Vice President Kamala Harris is now running for the job.
Michigan is considered one of several “swing” states that could determine the outcome of the election, and one voting bloc here could make a significant difference: Arab-Americans.
A number of Arab-Americans, including many here in Hamtramck, voted “uncommitted” in the Presidential Primary Election back in February.
Hamtramck’s largest voting bloc is now those of the Muslim faith.
How significant was it?
A whopping 61 percent of Hamtramck voters voted “uncommitted,” with the hope of sending President Joe Biden a strong message to back off from supporting Israel and its invasion of Gaza.
Biden still won the Democratic primary election here in Hamtramck, with 32 percent of the vote.
Not that it mattered much.
Hamtramck voters were out of step with state voters who overwhelmingly supported him, with 13 percent of state voters voting “uncommitted,” which is within the range of past elections.
In Hamtramck, 18 percent of Republican voters marked “uncommitted” on their ballot instead of voting in favor of Trump.
Hamtramck has been a Democratic stronghold for several decades.
The Arab/Muslim voter population totals about 150,000 in the state.
At the time of the primary, Biden was criticized by many in the Arab-American community for his military support of Israel in that country’s invasion of Gaza, and the resulting deaths that now total about 40,000 Palestinians, most of whom were civilians.
While Biden has received the brunt of criticism for his support of Israel, Trump is also a backer of Israel, and he has warned that, if elected, he will deport immigrants who support Hamas (the military and political arm of the Palestinians).
Hamas invaded Israel back in October, killing about 1,200 people and taking a couple of hundred as hostages.
Locally, the mayor and city council have not said whether they will now support Harris.
Mayor Amer Ghalib did not respond to The Review about who he is supporting for president, if anyone at all.
The Review also reached out to State Rep. Abraham Aiyash (D-Hamtramck) as to whether he has thrown his support behind Harris. He, too, voted uncommitted in the primary.
Aiyash did not respond.
Aiyash had risen to prominence in the state Democratic Party since he was appointed Floor Majority Leader. However, this is the last few months of his term, and he is not seeking re-election.
Recently, The Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR), the nation’s largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization, released its election survey, which reached out to 1,155 Muslims across the country.
According to that survey, almost 30 percent of those voters are supporting Harris, while Trump receives 11 percent support.
But, here in Michigan, the results were much different.
According to CAIR, Dr. Jill Stein, of the Green Party, is leading by a whopping 40 percent among Muslim voters.
Here’s another finding:
Among Muslim males, Harris leads with 29 percent, while Muslim women prefer Stein at 34 percent.
Trump is receiving 14 percent support among men, and 10 percent among women.
As to the undecided, men come in at 17 percent, with women right behind them at 16 percent.
It is estimated there are 2.5 million Muslim voters in the country. According to various other media outlets, Stein is leading nationally among Muslim voters.
According to CAIR, Michigan and other swing states are still up for grabs as far as the Muslim vote goes.
While some say the Muslim vote in Michigan could decide whether Harris or Trump win, there are others who downplay that significance.
The Detroit News recently reported that one Michigan political pollster, Ed Sarpolus, is “dismissive of the idea that Arab-American voters, or those who voted uncommitted in the state’s February presidential primary, could swing the election for either Harris or Trump in November.”
Sarpolus went on to say, in the News story, that Arab Americans represent only 3% of the state’s voters. He said Harris has energized a number of younger voters and African-American voters, who will make up any deficit that Arab-American voters may create, either by withholding their vote, or even choosing to vote for Trump or another candidate.
Sarpolus put it this way to the News: “The question is, where do they go? Unless the vote is very close, it’s not going to make much difference.”
Posted Sept. 13, 2024